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#FanRankSettled callsBeat the IndexRating

Nobody’s qualified yet. The table’s wide open.

How the scoring works

You score by being more right than the Index, and by being right early. Jumping on a story after it breaks earns nothing: the Index counts every report from the moment it was published.

Reputation = Σ(weight × edge) ÷ (Σ weight + 10). Edge = time-averaged Brier advantage over the Index while you held a call; weight = min(1, √(time held ÷ 7 days)) (earlier sagas: share of the saga held).

Ranked by average Points per settled call (shrunk by 5 calls’ worth, so a couple of lucky calls can’t top it). You qualify at 5 settled calls.

How Swoop works, with a try-it-yourself example →