Where’s Erling Haaland heading?
The Index reckons Haaland stays put.
The question: where will Haaland be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Could be anywhere from 1% to 28%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Just rumours so far
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
How likely is Haaland to join Real Madrid?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 13%.
Why 13%?
Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Haaland stays put (53%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Erling Haaland stays put (53%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.
The evidence
Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Real Madrid are interested13→22%Real Madrid
- A reliable report that Real Madrid have gone cold13→1%Real Madrid
- Barcelona putting in a bid13→61%Barcelona
- Talk of a new contract53→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- STAYStays at Man City54%
- RMAReal Madrid13%
- BARBarcelona13%
- PSGPSG13%
- OTHAnother club7%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at Man CityIndex 5454%=
- RMAReal MadridIndex 1313%=
- BARBarcelonaIndex 1313%=
- PSGPSGIndex 1313%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by Fichajes · latest 11d ago
0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
- 23 Oct, 01:00·InterestRMAUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Real Madrid keen. (our summary)
- 23 Oct, 01:00·InterestBARUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Barcelona keen. (our summary)
- 21 Oct, 01:00·InterestPSGUnconfirmed · not counted yet
PSG among interested clubs. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
No checked source is moving the number yet. The Index is going on base rates.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook