Where’s Estêvão heading?
The Index reckons Estêvão stays put.
The question: where will Estêvão be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
Embed on your site
A live SWOOP Index widget for your article or site. It updates itself, links back here, and is free to use. No sign-up, no cookies.
Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Fichajes · 3d ago · Original report ↗
Two independent sources now report interest.
- New report: Fichajes, interest (Man Utd), 3d ago · Original report ↗
- New report: Fichajes, interest (Barcelona), 5d ago · Original report ↗
- New report: indykaila, interest (PSG), 6d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 29%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Estêvão to Man Utd: 14% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Estêvão to join Man Utd?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 14%.
Why 14%?
The Index reckons Estêvão stays (51%). Man Utd are still in the hunt at 14%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 51%. Man Utd remain a live alternative at 14%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MUN
Man Utd preparing a bid of around €100m.
Fichajes · Tier 4 · Low · 3d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 3d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired14→31%Man Utd
- A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold14→2%Man Utd
- Barcelona putting in a bid14→62%Barcelona
- Talk of a new contract51→96%Stays
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at ChelseaIndex 5151%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 1414%=
- BARBarcelonaIndex 1414%=
- PSGPSGIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 29 Oct by indykaila · latest 3d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Man Utd preparing a bid of around €100m. (our summary)
Barcelona considering a loan. (our summary)
PSG interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- MUNFichajesT4Interest · 3d ago
- BARFichajesT4Interest · 5d ago
- PSGindykailaT4Interest · 6d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook