Where’s Fermín López heading?
The Index isn’t convinced López is going anywhere yet.
The question: where will López be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Could be anywhere from 1% to 27%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Just rumours so far
- Last update
- 6h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
How likely is López to join Chelsea?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 12%.
Why 12%?
Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes López stays put (47%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Fermín López stays put (47%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.
The evidence
Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 6h ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Chelsea are interested12→20%Chelsea
- A reliable report that Chelsea have gone cold12→1%Chelsea
- Man Utd putting in a bid12→58%Man Utd
- Talk of a new contract47→96%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- STAYStays at Barcelona47%
- CHEChelsea12%
- MUNMan Utd11%
- PSGPSG12%
- ARSArsenal12%
- OTHAnother club6%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at BarcelonaIndex 4646%=
- CHEChelseaIndex 1212%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 1212%=
- PSGPSGIndex 1212%=
- ARSArsenalIndex 1212%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 66%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 23 Oct by El Nacional · latest 3d ago
0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
- 31 Oct, 00:00·InterestMUNUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
- 28 Oct, 00:00·InterestPSGUnconfirmed · not counted yet
PSG among interested clubs. (our summary)
- 23 Oct, 01:00·InterestCHEUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Chelsea interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
No checked source is moving the number yet. The Index is going on base rates.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook