Where’s Trent Alexander-Arnold heading?
The Index reckons Alexander-Arnold stays put.
The question: where will Alexander-Arnold be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Just rumours so far
- Last update
- 3h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
How likely is Alexander-Arnold to join Liverpool?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 15%.
Why 15%?
Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Alexander-Arnold stays put (61%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Trent Alexander-Arnold stays put (61%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.
The evidence
Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 3h ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Liverpool are interested15→25%Liverpool
- A reliable report that Liverpool have gone cold15→2%Liverpool
- Chelsea putting in a bid15→65%Chelsea
- Talk of a new contract61→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- STAYStays at Real Madrid62%
- LIVLiverpool15%
- CHEChelsea15%
- OTHAnother club8%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at Real MadridIndex 6262%=
- LIVLiverpoolIndex 1515%=
- CHEChelseaIndex 1515%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 88%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 24 Oct by Football Insider · latest 2d ago
0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
- 1 Nov, 00:00·InterestLIVUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Liverpool interested in bringing him back on loan. (our summary)
- 29 Oct, 00:00·InterestCHEUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Chelsea stepping up interest. (our summary)
- 24 Oct, 01:00·Interest cooledLIVUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Liverpool reportedly not pursuing a return. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
No checked source is moving the number yet. The Index is going on base rates.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook