Where’s Nico Paz heading?
The Index isn’t convinced Paz is going anywhere yet.
The question: where will Paz be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · El Nacional · 2d ago · Original report ↗
Two independent sources now report interest.
- New report: El Nacional, interest (Man Utd), 2d ago · Original report ↗
- New report: TEAMtalk, interest (Arsenal), 6d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 28%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Nico Paz to Man Utd: 13% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Paz to join Man Utd?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 13%.
Why 13%?
The Index reckons Paz stays (45%). Chelsea are still in the hunt at 13%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 45%. Man Utd remain a live alternative at 13%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MUN
Man Utd preparing a big offer.
El Nacional · Tier 4 · Low · 2d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 2d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired13→28%Man Utd
- A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold13→1%Man Utd
- Chelsea putting in a bid13→59%Chelsea
- Talk of a new contract45→95%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club6%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at ComoIndex 4545%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 1313%=
- CHEChelseaIndex 1313%=
- ARSArsenalIndex 1212%=
- RMAReal MadridIndex 1111%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 66%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 23 Oct by Nicolò Schira · latest 2d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Man Utd preparing a big offer. (our summary)
Arsenal interested. (our summary)
Chelsea interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- CHENicolò SchiraT3Interest · 12d ago
- MUNEl NacionalT4Interest · 2d ago
- ARSTEAMtalkT4Interest · 6d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook