Is Harry Kane off to Barcelona?
The Index reckons Kane stays put.
The question: where will Kane be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Could be anywhere from 3% to 33%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Just rumours so far
- Last update
- 3h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
How likely is Kane to join Barcelona?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 18%.
Why 18%?
Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Kane stays put (72%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Harry Kane stays put (72%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.
The evidence
Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 3h ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Barcelona are interested18→29%Barcelona
- A reliable report that Barcelona have gone cold18→2%Barcelona
- Talk of a new contract72→97%Stays
How it could end
- STAYStays at Bayern72%
- BARBarcelona18%
- OTHAnother club10%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at BayernIndex 7272%=
- BARBarcelonaIndex 1818%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 29 Oct by Fichajes · latest 5d ago
0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
- 29 Oct, 00:00·InterestBARUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Barcelona planning a move. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
No checked source is moving the number yet. The Index is going on base rates.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook