Is Leandro Trossard off to Beşiktaş?
The Index reckons Trossard stays put.
The question: where will Trossard be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Club agreement (reported, not confirmed) · Charles Watts · 113d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 6% to 36%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Clubs have a deal
- Last update
- 1h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Leandro Trossard to Beşiktaş: 21% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 04:00, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
SWOOP opened this story automatically on 4 Nov, when credible reporting first linked Leandro Trossard with a move. A person can void it if it comes to nothing.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisClub agreementBES113d ago
“Club agreement: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas”
Charles WattsTier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index - Medical scheduledBES113d ago
“Medical scheduled: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas”
Charles WattsTier 2 · ReliableNot counted yet
How likely is Trossard to join Beşiktaş?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 21%.
Why 21%?
The Index reckons Trossard stays (69%). Beşiktaş are still in the hunt at 21%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 69%. Beşiktaş remain a live alternative at 21%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- BES
“Club agreement: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas”
Charles Watts · Tier 2 · Reliable · 113d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 1h ago · latest report 113d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that a Beşiktaş medical is booked21→96%Beşiktaş
- A reliable report that talks with Beşiktaş have stalled21→6%Beşiktaş
- Talk of a new contract69→97%Stays
How it could end
- OTHAnother club9%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at ArsenalIndex 7070%=
- BESBeşiktaşIndex 2121%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 99%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 14 Jul by Charles Watts · latest 113d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
“Club agreement: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas”
“Medical scheduled: Leandro Trossard to Besiktas”
Every source, weighed
- BESCharles WattsT2Club agreement · 113d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 4 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook