Where’s Folarin Balogun heading?
The Index isn’t convinced Balogun is going anywhere yet.
The question: where will Balogun be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · TEAMtalk · 2d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: TEAMtalk, interest (Man Utd), 2d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 27%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 2h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Folarin Balogun to Man Utd: 12% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestMUN2d ago
Man Utd, Leeds, Newcastle and Forest interested.
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index - EnquiryMUN3d ago
Enquiry: Folarin Balogun to Manchester United
@TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowUnconfirmed · not counted yet
How likely is Balogun to join Man Utd?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 12%.
Why 12%?
The Index reckons Balogun stays (42%). There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 42%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MUN
Man Utd, Leeds, Newcastle and Forest interested.
TEAMtalk · Tier 4 · Low · 2d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 2h ago · latest report 2d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired12→26%Man Utd
- A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold12→1%Man Utd
- Leeds putting in a bid10→54%Leeds
- Talk of a new contract42→95%Stays
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at MonacoIndex 4242%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 1212%=
- LEELeedsIndex 1010%=
- NEWNewcastleIndex 1010%=
- NFOForestIndex 1010%=
- EVEEvertonIndex 1010%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 66%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 1 Nov by Ekrem Konur · latest 2d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 1 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Man Utd, Leeds, Newcastle and Forest interested. (our summary)
Enquiry: Folarin Balogun to Manchester United (our summary of a post on X)
Interest: Folarin Balogun to Leeds United (our summary of a post on X)
Interest: Folarin Balogun to Newcastle United (our summary of a post on X)
Interest: Folarin Balogun to Nottingham Forest (our summary of a post on X)
Every source, weighed
- MUNTEAMtalkT4Interest · 2d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook