MUNManchester United·Player profile·Centre-back·28

Where’s Lisandro Martínez heading?

The Index reckons Martínez stays put.

The question: where will Martínez be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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ATMChance of Atlético

±0

15%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeHere we go?

Where it’s at: Just rumours so far
Last update: 6h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Beat the Index

How likely is Martínez to join Atlético?

You

15%

The Index

15%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 15%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 15%?

Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Martínez stays put (61%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Lisandro Martínez stays put (61%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.

The evidence

Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 6h ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Atlético are interested15→25%Atlético
A reliable report that Atlético have gone cold15→2%Atlético
Barcelona putting in a bid15→65%Barcelona
Talk of a new contract61→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Man Utd62%
ATMAtlético15%
BARBarcelona15%
OTHAnother club8%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Man UtdIndex 6262%
=
ATMAtléticoIndex 1515%
=
BARBarcelonaIndex 1515%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 88%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Man Utdlevel with the Index

ATMAtléticolevel with the Index

BARBarcelonalevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 1 Nov by AS · latest 2d ago

0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

1 Nov, 00:00·InterestATMUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Atlético Madrid interested. (our summary)
ASTier 2 · ReliableOriginal report ↗
1 Nov, 00:00·InterestBARUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Barcelona interested. (our summary)
FichajesTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗