Where’s Bruno Fernandes heading?
The Index reckons Fernandes stays put.
The question: where will Fernandes be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Football Insider · 7d ago · Original report ↗
Two independent sources now report interest.
- New report: Football Insider, interest (Milan), 7d ago · Original report ↗
- New report: Fichajes, interest (Atlético), 7d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 31%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Bruno Fernandes to Milan: 16% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Fernandes to join Milan?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 16%.
Why 16%?
The Index reckons Fernandes stays (53%). It’s not all one-way, though: Galatasaray have gone off the idea. Milan are still in the hunt at 16%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 53%. Against a move: Galatasaray cooled their interest. Milan remain a live alternative at 16%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MIL
AC Milan interested.
Football Insider · Tier 3 · Mixed · 7d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 7d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Milan have enquired16→33%Milan
- A reliable report that Milan have gone cold16→2%Milan
- Atlético putting in a bid14→63%Atlético
- Talk of a new contract53→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club8%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at Man UtdIndex 5353%=
- MILMilanIndex 1616%=
- ATMAtléticoIndex 1414%=
- GALGalatasarayIndex 99%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 88%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 22 Oct by TEAMtalk · latest 7d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 1 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
AC Milan interested. (our summary)
Atlético Madrid interested. (our summary)
Galatasaray have dropped out. (our summary)
- 22 Oct, 01:00·InterestOTHOriginal report
Saudi Pro League clubs interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- GALTEAMtalkT4Interest cooled · 13d ago
- MILFootball InsiderT3Interest · 7d ago
- ATMFichajesT4Interest · 7d ago
- OTHTEAMtalkT4Interest · 13d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook