Bayern linked with Loris Karius
The Index reckons Karius stays put.
The question: where will Karius be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Florian Plettenberg · 2d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Florian Plettenberg, interest (Bayern), 2d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 2% to 32%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 35m ago
- The fans say
SWOOP opened this story automatically on 9 Nov, when credible reporting first linked Loris Karius with a move. A person can void it if it comes to nothing.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- InterestBAY2d ago
Interest: Loris Karius to Bayern Munich
Florian PlettenbergTier 1 · EliteCounted in the Index
How likely is Karius to join Bayern?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 17%.
Why 17%?
The Index reckons Karius stays (73%). Bayern are still in the hunt at 17%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 73%. Bayern remain a live alternative at 17%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- BAY
Interest: Loris Karius to Bayern Munich
Florian Plettenberg · Tier 1 · Elite · 2d ago · View on X ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 35m ago · latest report 2d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Bayern have enquired17→36%Bayern
- A reliable report that Bayern have gone cold17→2%Bayern
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at SchalkeIndex 7373%=
- BAYBayernIndex 1717%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
Model update, 10 Nov: figures since then use SWOOP-engine-1.7 (before: SWOOP-engine-1.6). It changed how much a club starts with before strong reporting, not the evidence, so any step on that day is the model, not news. What changed
What’s driving it?
Context, not part of the IndexManager: Vincent Kompany · 2 years in the job
Who decides the signing. Manager pressure from rated reporting in the last 30 days.
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 9 Nov by Florian Plettenberg · latest 2d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Florian Plettenberg reports that Bayern are interested in Loris Karius.
Every source, weighed
- BAYFlorian PlettenbergT1Interest · 2d ago
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See every take on the Live wire.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 9 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook