MCIManchester City·Player profile·Left-back

Where’s Rayan Aït-Nouri heading?

The Index reckons Aït-Nouri stays put.

The question: where will Aït-Nouri be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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MUNChance of Man Utd

±0

15%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeHere we go?

Where it’s at: Just rumours so far
Last update: 4h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Beat the Index

How likely is Aït-Nouri to join Man Utd?

You

15%

The Index

15%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 15%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 15%?

Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Aït-Nouri stays put (61%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Rayan Aït-Nouri stays put (61%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.

The evidence

Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 4h ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Man Utd are interested15→25%Man Utd
A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold15→2%Man Utd
Juventus putting in a bid15→65%Juventus
Talk of a new contract61→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Man City62%
MUNMan Utd15%
JUVJuventus15%
OTHAnother club8%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Man CityIndex 6262%
=
MUNMan UtdIndex 1515%
=
JUVJuventusIndex 1515%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 88%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Man Citylevel with the Index

MUNMan Utdlevel with the Index

JUVJuventuslevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 30 Oct by Tuttomercatoweb · latest 3d ago

0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

31 Oct, 00:00·InterestMUNUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
30 Oct, 00:00·InterestJUVUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Juventus interested. (our summary)
TuttomercatowebTier 3 · MixedOriginal report ↗