RMAReal Madrid·Player profile·Left winger·26

Is Vinícius Júnior off to Arsenal?

The Index reckons Júnior stays put.

The question: where will Júnior be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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ARSChance of Arsenal

±0

18%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 3% to 33%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeHere we go?

Where it’s at: Just rumours so far
Last update: 3h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Beat the Index

How likely is Júnior to join Arsenal?

You

18%

The Index

18%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 18%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 18%?

Nobody we trust has reported anything solid yet, so the Index assumes Júnior stays put (72%). Rumours from unchecked sources don’t count until a checked source backs them up.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

No reviewed source has reported meaningful progress, so the Index assumes Vinícius Júnior stays put (72%). Unverified rumours carry no weight until a reviewed source reports them.

The evidence

Nothing solid yet. The Index is going on base rates.

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 3h ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Arsenal are interested18→29%Arsenal
A reliable report that Arsenal have gone cold18→2%Arsenal
Talk of a new contract72→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

How it could end

STAYStays at Real Madrid72%
ARSArsenal18%
OTHAnother club10%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Real MadridIndex 7272%
=
ARSArsenalIndex 1818%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Real Madridlevel with the Index

ARSArsenallevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

0 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 22 Oct by El Nacional · latest 3d ago

0 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

31 Oct, 00:00·InterestARSUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Arsenal considering a swap involving Zubimendi. (our summary)
FichajesTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
22 Oct, 01:00·TalksARSUnconfirmed · not counted yet
Arsenal have reopened talks. (our summary)
El NacionalTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗