Where’s Erling Haaland heading?
The Index reckons Haaland stays put.
The question: where will Haaland be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · El Nacional · 12d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 29%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 5h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Erling Haaland to Real Madrid: 14% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestPSG14d ago
PSG among interested clubs.
FichajesTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index - InterestRMA12d ago
Real Madrid keen.
El NacionalTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
How likely is Haaland to join Real Madrid?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 14%.
Why 14%?
The Index reckons Haaland stays (52%). Barcelona are still in the hunt at 14%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 52%. Real Madrid remain a live alternative at 14%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- RMA
Real Madrid keen.
El Nacional · Tier 4 · Low · 12d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 12d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Real Madrid have enquired14→30%Real Madrid
- A reliable report that Real Madrid have gone cold14→2%Real Madrid
- Barcelona putting in a bid14→62%Barcelona
- Talk of a new contract52→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club7%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at Man CityIndex 5151%=
- RMAReal MadridIndex 1414%=
- BARBarcelonaIndex 1414%=
- PSGPSGIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by Fichajes · latest 12d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Real Madrid keen. (our summary)
Barcelona keen. (our summary)
PSG among interested clubs. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- RMAEl NacionalT4Interest · 12d ago
- BAREl NacionalT4Interest · 12d ago
- PSGFichajesT4Interest · 14d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook