BAYBayern Munich·Player profile·Striker·33·England

Is Harry Kane off to Barcelona?

The Index reckons Kane stays put.

The question: where will Kane be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

Embed on your site

A live SWOOP Index widget for your article or site. It updates itself, links back here, and is free to use. No sign-up, no cookies.

How embeds work

<iframe src="https://swoopfc.com/embed/saga/january-2027-harry-kane" width="100%" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:640px;width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Harry Kane on the SWOOP Index"></iframe>

Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Fichajes · 6d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

One independent source now reports interest.

New report: Fichajes, interest (Barcelona), 6d ago · Original report ↗

BARChance of Barcelona

±0

19%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 4% to 34%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 4h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Harry Kane to Barcelona: 19% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisRenewal talks / signedSTAY21h ago
“Harry Kane says he is extremely close to signing a new contract with Bayern Munich.”
Bundesliga (official)Tier 1 · EliteNot counted yet
In context ↓Original report ↗
Renewal talks / signedSTAY33h ago
Renewal talks / signed: Harry Kane
Fabrizio RomanoTier 1 · EliteNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestBAR6d ago
Barcelona planning a move.
FichajesTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Kane to join Barcelona?

You

19%

The Index

19%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 19%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 19%?

The Index reckons Kane stays (71%). Barcelona are still in the hunt at 19%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 71%. Barcelona remain a live alternative at 19%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

BAR
Barcelona planning a move.
Fichajes · Tier 4 · Low · 6d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 6d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Barcelona have enquired19→40%Barcelona
A reliable report that Barcelona have gone cold19→2%Barcelona
Talk of a new contract71→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

How it could end

STAYStays at Bayern71%
BARBarcelona19%
OTHAnother club10%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at BayernIndex 7171%
=
BARBarcelonaIndex 1919%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Bayernlevel with the Index

BARBarcelonalevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 28 Oct by Fabrizio Romano · latest 21h ago

1 original · 0 corroborating · 1 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

3 Nov, 07:45·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
“Harry Kane says he is extremely close to signing a new contract with Bayern Munich.”
Bundesliga (official)Tier 1 · EliteOriginal report ↗
2 Nov, 18:56·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
Renewal talks / signed: Harry Kane (our summary of a post on X)
Fabrizio RomanoTier 1 · EliteView on X ↗
29 Oct, 00:00·InterestBAROriginal report
Barcelona planning a move. (our summary)
FichajesTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
28 Oct, 17:52·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
Renewal talks / signed: Harry Kane (our summary of a post on X)
Florian PlettenbergTier 1 · EliteView on X ↗
28 Oct, 08:22·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
Renewal talks / signed: Harry Kane (our summary of a post on X)
Fabrizio Romano on X repeating Bayern CEO Dreesen, told BILD (original not in our records)UnreviewedView on X ↗
28 Oct, 06:41·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
Renewal talks / signed: Harry Kane (our summary of a post on X)
Fabrizio RomanoTier 1 · EliteView on X ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

BARFichajesT4
Interest · 6d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.

Pundits’ views on this move, from their own posts. Opinion, not reporting: it never moves the Index