Where’s Marcus Rashford heading?
The Index reckons Rashford stays put.
The question: where will Rashford be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Talks (reported, not confirmed) · FootballTransfers · 11d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 8% to 38%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Talks under way
- Last update
- 2h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Marcus Rashford to Everton: 23% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Rashford to join Everton?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 23%.
Why 23%?
The Index reckons Rashford stays (56%). Everton are still in the hunt at 23%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 56%. Everton remain a live alternative at 23%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- EVE
Everton have held early talks with Man Utd about a January move.
FootballTransfers · Tier 3 · Mixed · 11d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 2h ago · latest report 11d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Everton have bid23→71%Everton
- A reliable report that Everton have gone cold23→3%Everton
- Spurs putting in a bid14→62%Spurs
- Talk of a new contract56→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club8%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at Man UtdIndex 5555%=
- EVEEvertonIndex 2323%=
- TOTSpursIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 88%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 24 Oct by FootballTransfers · latest 11d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Everton have held early talks with Man Utd about a January move. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- EVEFootballTransfersT3Talks · 11d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook