RMAReal Madrid·Player profile·Right-back·28·England

Where’s Trent Alexander-Arnold heading?

The Index reckons Alexander-Arnold stays put.

The question: where will Alexander-Arnold be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Cadena SER · 3d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

Two independent sources now report interest.

New report: Cadena SER, interest (Liverpool), 3d ago · Original report ↗
New report: Si Phillips, interest (Chelsea), 6d ago · Original report ↗

CHEChance of Chelsea

±0

17%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 2% to 32%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 5h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Trent Alexander-Arnold to Chelsea: 17% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisInterestCHE6d ago
Chelsea stepping up interest.
Si PhillipsTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗
InterestLIV3d ago
Liverpool interested in bringing him back on loan.
Cadena SERTier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗
InterestLIV6d ago
Interest: Trent Alexander-Arnold to Liverpool
IndykailaTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Alexander-Arnold to join Chelsea?

You

17%

The Index

17%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 17%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 17%?

The Index reckons Alexander-Arnold stays (63%). It’s not all one-way, though: Liverpool have gone off the idea. Chelsea are still in the hunt at 17%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 63%. Against a move: Liverpool cooled their interest. Chelsea remain a live alternative at 17%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

CHE
Chelsea stepping up interest.
Si Phillips · Tier 4 · Low · 6d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

LIV
Liverpool interested in bringing him back on loan.
Cadena SER · Tier 2 · Reliable · 3d ago · Original report ↗

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 3d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Chelsea have enquired17→36%Chelsea
A reliable report that Chelsea have gone cold17→2%Chelsea
Liverpool putting in a bid11→51%Liverpool
Talk of a new contract63→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Real Madrid63%
CHEChelsea17%
LIVLiverpool11%
OTHAnother club9%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Real MadridIndex 6363%
=
CHEChelseaIndex 1717%
=
LIVLiverpoolIndex 1111%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 99%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Real Madridlevel with the Index

CHEChelsealevel with the Index

LIVLiverpoollevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 24 Oct by Football Insider · latest 3d ago

2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 1 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

1 Nov, 00:00·InterestLIVOriginal report
Liverpool interested in bringing him back on loan. (our summary)
Cadena SERTier 2 · ReliableOriginal report ↗
29 Oct, 00:00·InterestCHEOriginal report
Chelsea stepping up interest. (our summary)
Si PhillipsTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
28 Oct, 22:13·InterestLIVNot counted yet
Interest: Trent Alexander-Arnold to Liverpool (our summary of a post on X)
IndykailaTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
28 Oct, 22:13·TalksCHENot counted yet
Talks: Trent Alexander-Arnold to Chelsea (our summary of a post on X)
IndykailaTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
24 Oct, 01:00·Interest cooledLIVSetback
Liverpool reportedly not pursuing a return. (our summary)
Football InsiderTier 3 · MixedOriginal report ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

LIVFootball InsiderT3
Interest cooled · 11d ago
LIVCadena SERT2
Interest · 3d ago
CHESi PhillipsT4
Interest · 6d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.