Is Álex Baena off to Arsenal?
The Index reckons Baena stays put.
The question: where will Baena be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Football Insider · 5d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- Independent corroboration: Football Insider, interest (Arsenal), 5d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 8% to 38%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 5h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Álex Baena to Arsenal: 23% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestARS5d ago
Arsenal interested.
Football InsiderTier 3 · MixedCounted in the Index - InterestARS13d ago
Arsenal interested.
FootballTransfersTier 3 · MixedCounted in the Index
How likely is Baena to join Arsenal?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 23%.
Why 23%?
The Index reckons Baena stays (68%). Arsenal are still in the hunt at 23%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 68%. Arsenal remain a live alternative at 23%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- ARS
Arsenal interested.
Football Insider · Tier 3 · Mixed · 5d ago · Original report ↗
- ARS
Arsenal interested.
FootballTransfers · Tier 3 · Mixed · 13d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 5d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Arsenal have enquired23→43%Arsenal
- A reliable report that Arsenal have gone cold23→3%Arsenal
- Talk of a new contract68→97%Stays
How it could end
- OTHAnother club9%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at AtléticoIndex 6868%=
- ARSArsenalIndex 2323%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 99%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 22 Oct by FootballTransfers · latest 5d ago
1 original · 1 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Arsenal interested. (our summary)
Arsenal interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- ARSFootball InsiderT3Interest · 5d ago
- ARSFootballTransfersT3Interest · 13d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook