Where’s Alexis Mac Allister heading?
The Index reckons Allister stays put.
The question: where will Allister be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · winwin · 5d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest. A new report points the other way (interest cooling), against earlier reporting.
- New report: winwin, interest (Man City), 5d ago · Original report ↗
- Points the other way: Defensa Central, interest cooling (Real Madrid), 6d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 5h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Alexis Mac Allister to Man City: 15% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterest cooledRMA6d ago
Real Madrid's coach reportedly sees no need for a midfielder.
Defensa CentralTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index - Renewal talks / signedSTAY8h ago
Renewal talks / signed: Alexis Mac Allister
James PearceTier 2 · ReliableNot counted yet
How likely is Allister to join Man City?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 15%.
Why 15%?
The Index reckons Allister stays (55%). It’s not all one-way, though: Real Madrid have gone off the idea. Man City are still in the hunt at 15%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 55%. Against a move: Real Madrid cooled their interest. Man City remain a live alternative at 15%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MCI
Man City interested.
winwin · Tier 4 · Low · 5d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 5d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Man City have enquired15→33%Man City
- A reliable report that Man City have gone cold15→2%Man City
- Atlético putting in a bid14→62%Atlético
- Talk of a new contract55→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club7%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at LiverpoolIndex 5555%=
- MCIMan CityIndex 1515%=
- ATMAtléticoIndex 1414%=
- RMAReal MadridIndex 99%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by Fichajes · latest 8h ago
2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 1 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
- 3 Nov, 20:21·Renewal talks / signedSTAYNot counted yet
Renewal talks / signed: Alexis Mac Allister (our summary of a post on X)
Interest: Alexis Mac Allister to Real Madrid (our summary of a post on X)
Man City interested. (our summary)
Real Madrid's coach reportedly sees no need for a midfielder. (our summary)
Real Madrid interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- RMADefensa CentralT4Interest cooled · 6d ago
- MCIwinwinT4Interest · 5d ago
- RMAFichajesT4Interest · 14d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook