Is Dominic Calvert-Lewin off to Man Utd?
The Index reckons Calvert-Lewin stays put.
The question: where will Calvert-Lewin be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Laurie Whitwell · 6d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Laurie Whitwell, interest (Man Utd), 6d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 9% to 39%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 2h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Man Utd: 24% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 04:00, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
SWOOP opened this story automatically on 4 Nov, when credible reporting first linked Dominic Calvert-Lewin with a move. A person can void it if it comes to nothing.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- InterestMUN6d ago
Interest: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Manchester United
Laurie WhitwellTier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index
How likely is Calvert-Lewin to join Man Utd?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 24%.
Why 24%?
The Index reckons Calvert-Lewin stays (67%). Man Utd are still in the hunt at 24%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 67%. Man Utd remain a live alternative at 24%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- MUN
Interest: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Manchester United
Laurie Whitwell · Tier 2 · Reliable · 6d ago · View on X ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 2h ago · latest report 6d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired24→43%Man Utd
- A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold24→3%Man Utd
- Talk of a new contract67→97%Stays
How it could end
- OTHAnother club9%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at LeedsIndex 6767%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 2424%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 99%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 29 Oct by Laurie Whitwell · latest 6d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Interest: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Manchester United (our summary of a post on X)
Every source, weighed
- MUNLaurie WhitwellT2Interest · 6d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 4 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook