BARBarcelona·Player profile·Central midfielder·23·Spain

Where’s Fermín López heading?

The Index isn’t convinced López is going anywhere yet.

The question: where will López be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

Embed on your site

A live SWOOP Index widget for your article or site. It updates itself, links back here, and is free to use. No sign-up, no cookies.

How embeds work

<iframe src="https://swoopfc.com/embed/saga/january-2027-fermin-lopez" width="100%" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:640px;width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Fermín López on the SWOOP Index"></iframe>

Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Matteo Moretto (Marca) · 4d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

Two independent sources now report interest.

New report: Matteo Moretto (Marca), interest (Man Utd), 4d ago · Original report ↗
New report: Ekrem Konur, interest (PSG), 7d ago · Original report ↗

MUNChance of Man Utd

±0

16%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 1% to 31%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 5h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Fermín López to Man Utd: 16% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisInterestMUN4d ago
Man Utd interested.
Matteo Moretto (Marca)Tier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗
InterestPSG4d ago
Interest: Fermín López to Paris Saint-Germain
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestPSG7d ago
PSG among interested clubs.
Ekrem KonurTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is López to join Man Utd?

You

16%

The Index

16%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 16%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 16%?

The Index reckons López stays (44%). Man Utd are still in the hunt at 16%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 44%. Man Utd remain a live alternative at 16%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

MUN
Man Utd interested.
Matteo Moretto (Marca) · Tier 2 · Reliable · 4d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 4d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired16→32%Man Utd
A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold16→2%Man Utd
PSG putting in a bid12→57%PSG
Talk of a new contract44→95%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Barcelona44%
MUNMan Utd16%
PSGPSG12%
CHEChelsea11%
ARSArsenal11%
OTHAnother club6%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at BarcelonaIndex 4343%
=
MUNMan UtdIndex 1616%
=
PSGPSGIndex 1212%
=
CHEChelseaIndex 1212%
=
ARSArsenalIndex 1111%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 66%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Barcelonalevel with the Index

MUNMan Utdlevel with the Index

PSGPSGlevel with the Index

CHEChelsealevel with the Index

ARSArsenallevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 23 Oct by El Nacional · latest 4d ago

3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

31 Oct, 00:00·InterestMUNOriginal report
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
Matteo Moretto (Marca)Tier 2 · ReliableOriginal report ↗
30 Oct, 20:49·InterestPSGNot counted yet
Interest: Fermín López to Paris Saint-Germain (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
28 Oct, 00:00·InterestPSGOriginal report
PSG among interested clubs. (our summary)
Ekrem KonurTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
23 Oct, 01:00·InterestCHEEarliest report we hold
Chelsea interested. (our summary)
El NacionalTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

MUNMatteo Moretto (Marca)T2
Interest · 4d ago
PSGEkrem KonurT4
Interest · 7d ago
CHEEl NacionalT4
Interest · 12d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.