Where’s Jarrad Branthwaite heading?
The Index isn’t convinced Branthwaite is going anywhere yet.
The question: where will Branthwaite be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Football Insider · 6d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Football Insider, interest (Chelsea), 6d ago · Original report ↗
- New report: Football Insider, interest (Liverpool), 10d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Jarrad Branthwaite to Chelsea: 15% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Branthwaite to join Chelsea?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 15%.
Why 15%?
The Index reckons Branthwaite stays (50%). Chelsea are still in the hunt at 15%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 50%. Chelsea remain a live alternative at 15%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- CHE
Chelsea interested, with Man Utd competing.
Football Insider · Tier 3 · Mixed · 6d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 6d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Chelsea have enquired15→32%Chelsea
- A reliable report that Chelsea have gone cold15→2%Chelsea
- Liverpool putting in a bid14→62%Liverpool
- Talk of a new contract50→96%Stays
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at EvertonIndex 5050%=
- CHEChelseaIndex 1515%=
- LIVLiverpoolIndex 1414%=
- MUNMan UtdIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by Daily Mail · latest 6d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Chelsea interested, with Man Utd competing. (our summary)
Liverpool interested. (our summary)
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- CHEFootball InsiderT3Interest · 6d ago
- LIVFootball InsiderT3Interest · 10d ago
- MUNDaily MailT3Interest · 14d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook