CRYCrystal Palace·Player profile·Striker·29·France

Where’s Jean-Philippe Mateta heading?

The Index reckons Mateta stays put.

The question: where will Mateta be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · talkSPORT · 15d ago · Original report ↗

MUNChance of Man Utd

±0

17%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 2% to 32%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 5h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Jean-Philippe Mateta to Man Utd: 17% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisInterest4d ago
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Everton
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestMUN4d ago
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Manchester United
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestMUN15d ago
Man Utd interested.
talkSPORTTier 3 · MixedCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Mateta to join Man Utd?

You

17%

The Index

17%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 17%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 17%?

The Index reckons Mateta stays (60%). Man Utd are still in the hunt at 17%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 60%. Man Utd remain a live alternative at 17%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

MUN
Man Utd interested.
talkSPORT · Tier 3 · Mixed · 15d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 15d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Man Utd have enquired17→35%Man Utd
A reliable report that Man Utd have gone cold17→2%Man Utd
Villa putting in a bid15→64%Villa
Talk of a new contract60→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Palace60%
MUNMan Utd17%
AVLVilla15%
OTHAnother club8%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at PalaceIndex 6060%
=
MUNMan UtdIndex 1717%
=
AVLVillaIndex 1515%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 88%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Palacelevel with the Index

MUNMan Utdlevel with the Index

AVLVillalevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 20 Oct by talkSPORT · latest 4d ago

1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

31 Oct, 10:08·InterestNot counted yet
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Tottenham (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
31 Oct, 10:08·InterestMUNNot counted yet
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Manchester United (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
31 Oct, 10:08·InterestNot counted yet
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Nottingham Forest (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
31 Oct, 10:08·InterestNot counted yet
Interest: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Everton (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
20 Oct, 01:00·InterestMUNEarliest report we hold
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
talkSPORTTier 3 · MixedOriginal report ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

MUNtalkSPORTT3
Interest · 15d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.

Pundits’ views on this move, from their own posts. Opinion, not reporting: it never moves the Index