Is Jules Koundé off to Chelsea?
The Index reckons Koundé stays put.
The question: where will Koundé be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · TEAMtalk · 2d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: TEAMtalk, interest (Chelsea), 2d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 5% to 35%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 5h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Jules Koundé to Chelsea: 20% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestCHE2d ago
Chelsea interested.
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
How likely is Koundé to join Chelsea?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 20%.
Why 20%?
The Index reckons Koundé stays (70%). Chelsea are still in the hunt at 20%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 70%. Chelsea remain a live alternative at 20%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- CHE
Chelsea interested.
TEAMtalk · Tier 4 · Low · 2d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 2d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Chelsea have enquired20→40%Chelsea
- A reliable report that Chelsea have gone cold20→2%Chelsea
- Talk of a new contract70→97%Stays
How it could end
- OTHAnother club10%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at BarcelonaIndex 7070%=
- CHEChelseaIndex 2020%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 2 Nov by TEAMtalk · latest 2d ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Chelsea interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- CHETEAMtalkT4Interest · 2d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook