MUNManchester United·Player profile·Centre-back·28·Argentina

Where’s Lisandro Martínez heading?

The Index reckons Martínez stays put.

The question: where will Martínez be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Fichajes · 3d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

Two independent sources now report interest. One other outlet repeated existing reports (not counted again).

New report: Fichajes, interest (Barcelona), 3d ago · Original report ↗
New report: AS, interest (Atlético), 3d ago · Original report ↗

ATMChance of Atlético

▼ 1

20%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 5% to 35%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Phone’s ringing
Last update: 2h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Lisandro Martínez to Atlético: 20% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 02:33, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisEnquiryBAR5d ago
Enquiry: Lisandro Martinez to Barcelona
@TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓View on X ↗
Talks2d ago
Talks: Lisandro Martínez
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestBAR3d ago
Barcelona interested.
FichajesTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Martínez to join Atlético?

You

20%

The Index

20%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 20%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 20%?

The Index reckons Martínez stays (55%). Atlético are still in the hunt at 20%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 55%. Atlético remain a live alternative at 20%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

ATM
Atlético Madrid interested.
AS · Tier 2 · Reliable · 3d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 2h ago · latest report 3d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Atlético have enquired20→38%Atlético
A reliable report that Atlético have gone cold20→2%Atlético
Barcelona putting in a bid18→67%Barcelona
Talk of a new contract55→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Man Utd55%
ATMAtlético20%
BARBarcelona18%
OTHAnother club7%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Man UtdIndex 5555%
=
ATMAtléticoIndex 2020%
=
BARBarcelonaIndex 1818%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 77%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Man Utdlevel with the Index

ATMAtléticolevel with the Index

BARBarcelonalevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 30 Oct by @TEAMtalk · latest 2d ago

2 original · 0 corroborating · 1 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

2 Nov, 09:27·TalksNot counted yet
Talks: Lisandro Martínez (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
1 Nov, 00:00·InterestBAROriginal report
Barcelona interested. (our summary)
FichajesTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
1 Nov, 00:00·InterestATMOriginal report
Atlético Madrid interested. (our summary)
ASTier 2 · ReliableOriginal report ↗
30 Oct, 11:47·EnquiryBARRepeated
Enquiry: Lisandro Martinez to Barcelona (our summary of a post on X)
Graeme Bailey on X repeating @TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowView on X ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

ATMAST2
Interest · 3d ago
BARTEAMtalkT4
Enquiry · 5d ago
BARFichajesT4
Interest · 3d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.