Where’s Nicolò Tresoldi heading?

The Index isn’t convinced Tresoldi is going anywhere yet.

The question: where will Tresoldi be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Nieuwsblad · 7d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

One independent source now reports interest.

New report: Nieuwsblad, interest (Barcelona), 7d ago · Original report ↗

ARSChance of Arsenal

±0

13%

Pub talkNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 1% to 28%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 5h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Nicolò Tresoldi to Arsenal: 13% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisInterestBAR7d ago
Barcelona interested.
NieuwsbladTier 3 · MixedCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗
InterestARS11d ago
Arsenal among several top clubs interested.
Sky DeutschlandTier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗
Club refuses saleSTAY14d ago
Club Brugge say he is not for sale.
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Tresoldi to join Arsenal?

You

13%

The Index

13%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 13%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 13%?

The Index reckons Tresoldi stays (50%). Word is the club are refusing to sell. Arsenal are still in the hunt at 13%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 50%. Arsenal remain a live alternative at 13%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

ARS
Arsenal among several top clubs interested.
Sky Deutschland · Tier 2 · Reliable · 11d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 7d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Arsenal have enquired13→27%Arsenal
A reliable report that Arsenal have gone cold13→1%Arsenal
Barcelona putting in a bid12→57%Barcelona
Talk of a new contract50→96%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Brugge50%
ARSArsenal13%
BARBarcelona12%
MUNMan Utd10%
TOTSpurs10%
OTHAnother club5%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at BruggeIndex 5050%
=
ARSArsenalIndex 1313%
=
BARBarcelonaIndex 1212%
=
MUNMan UtdIndex 1010%
=
TOTSpursIndex 1010%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 55%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Bruggelevel with the Index

ARSArsenallevel with the Index

BARBarcelonalevel with the Index

MUNMan Utdlevel with the Index

TOTSpurslevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

3 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by TEAMtalk · latest 7d ago

3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

28 Oct, 00:00·InterestBAROriginal report
Barcelona interested. (our summary)
NieuwsbladTier 3 · MixedOriginal report ↗
24 Oct, 01:00·InterestARSOriginal report
Arsenal among several top clubs interested. (our summary)
Sky DeutschlandTier 2 · ReliableOriginal report ↗
21 Oct, 01:00·Club refuses saleSTAYEarliest report we hold
Club Brugge say he is not for sale. (our summary)
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

ARSSky DeutschlandT2
Interest · 11d ago
STAYTEAMtalkT4
Club refuses sale · 14d ago
BARNieuwsbladT3
Interest · 7d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.