Where’s Pedro Porro heading?
The Index isn’t convinced Porro is going anywhere yet.
The question: where will Porro be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Cadena SER · 3d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Cadena SER, interest (Liverpool), 3d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 3% to 33%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 5h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Pedro Porro to Liverpool: 18% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestLIV3d ago
Liverpool interested.
Cadena SERTier 2 · ReliableCounted in the Index - InterestBAR5d ago
Interest: Pedro Porro to Barcelona
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
How likely is Porro to join Liverpool?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 18%.
Why 18%?
The Index reckons Porro stays (48%). Liverpool are still in the hunt at 18%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 48%. Liverpool remain a live alternative at 18%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- LIV
Liverpool interested.
Cadena SER · Tier 2 · Reliable · 3d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 5h ago · latest report 3d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Liverpool have enquired18→35%Liverpool
- A reliable report that Liverpool have gone cold18→2%Liverpool
- Real Madrid putting in a bid14→61%Real Madrid
- Talk of a new contract48→96%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club6%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at SpursIndex 4747%=
- LIVLiverpoolIndex 1818%=
- RMAReal MadridIndex 1414%=
- BARBarcelonaIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 77%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 23 Oct by Football Insider · latest 3d ago
3 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Liverpool interested. (our summary)
Interest: Pedro Porro to Barcelona (our summary of a post on X)
Real Madrid interested. (our summary)
Barcelona interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- LIVCadena SERT2Interest · 3d ago
- RMAFootball InsiderT3Interest · 12d ago
- BARFootball InsiderT3Interest · 12d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See the Pundits.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook