MCIManchester City·Player profile·Left-back

Where’s Rayan Aït-Nouri heading?

The Index reckons Aït-Nouri stays put.

The question: where will Aït-Nouri be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · TEAMtalk · 4d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

Two independent sources now report interest.

New report: TEAMtalk, interest (Man Utd), 4d ago · Original report ↗
New report: Tuttomercatoweb, interest (Juventus), 5d ago · Original report ↗

JUVChance of Juventus

±0

18%

Something in itNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 3% to 33%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeImminent

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 6h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Rayan Aït-Nouri to Juventus: 18% on the SWOOP Index (4 Nov, 00:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Latest

Every report, in order ↓

You came for thisInterestMUN5d ago
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Manchester United
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestMUN17h ago
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Manchester United
Florian PlettenbergTier 1 · EliteNot counted yet
In context ↓View on X ↗
InterestMUN4d ago
Man Utd interested.
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
In context ↓Original report ↗

Beat the Index

How likely is Aït-Nouri to join Juventus?

You

18%

The Index

18%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 18%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 18%?

The Index reckons Aït-Nouri stays (58%). Juventus are still in the hunt at 18%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 58%. Juventus remain a live alternative at 18%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

JUV
Juventus interested.
Tuttomercatoweb · Tier 3 · Mixed · 5d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 6h ago · latest report 4d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that Juventus have enquired18→36%Juventus
A reliable report that Juventus have gone cold18→2%Juventus
Man Utd putting in a bid16→66%Man Utd
Talk of a new contract58→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Man City58%
JUVJuventus18%
MUNMan Utd16%
OTHAnother club8%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Man CityIndex 5858%
=
JUVJuventusIndex 1818%
=
MUNMan UtdIndex 1616%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 88%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Man Citylevel with the Index

JUVJuventuslevel with the Index

MUNMan Utdlevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 29 Oct by Ekrem Konur · latest 17h ago

2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

3 Nov, 13:12·InterestMUNNot counted yet
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Manchester United (our summary of a post on X)
Florian PlettenbergTier 1 · EliteView on X ↗
31 Oct, 00:00·InterestMUNOriginal report
Man Utd interested. (our summary)
TEAMtalkTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
30 Oct, 00:00·InterestJUVOriginal report
Juventus interested. (our summary)
TuttomercatowebTier 3 · MixedOriginal report ↗
29 Oct, 21:39·InterestJUVNot counted yet
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Juventus (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
29 Oct, 21:39·InterestMUNNot counted yet
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Manchester United (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗
29 Oct, 21:39·InterestNot counted yet
Interest: Rayan Aït-Nouri to Everton (our summary of a post on X)
Ekrem KonurTier 3 · MixedView on X ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

JUVTuttomercatowebT3
Interest · 5d ago
MUNTEAMtalkT4
Interest · 4d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.