MCIManchester City·Player profile·Attacking midfielder·23·France

Where’s Rayan Cherki heading?

The Index reckons Cherki stays put.

The question: where will Cherki be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?

OPENCalls close in …

A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.

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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Fichajes · 6d ago · Original report ↗

In the last 7 days

One independent source now reports interest.

New report: Fichajes, interest (PSG), 6d ago · Original report ↗

PSGChance of PSG

▲ 1

14%

Pub talkNot much to go on

Could be anywhere from 1% to 29%. Not much to go on yet.

Pub talkSomething in itHeating upGetting closeSwooped?

Where it’s at: Being watched
Last update: 4h ago
The fans say: Nobody’s called it yet
Model: ti-engine-1.1 · not yet fitted to real outcomes

Cite this

Rayan Cherki to PSG: 14% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).

The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.

Beat the Index

How likely is Cherki to join PSG?

You

14%

The Index

14%

Gap

Index

No chanceCoin flipNailed on

Drag to make your call. The Index says 14%.

Free. Takes 10 seconds. Your call is timestamped the moment you save.

Written only from reports we’ve checked

Why 14%?

The Index reckons Cherki stays (52%). PSG are still in the hunt at 14%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.

The Index’s official wording, as recorded

The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 52%. PSG remain a live alternative at 14%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.

The evidence

PSG
PSG interested.
Fichajes · Tier 4 · Low · 6d ago · Original report ↗

What’s against it

Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.

The situation this week

This saga is less than a week old.

Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 6d ago

What to watch

The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.

A reliable report that PSG have enquired14→31%PSG
A reliable report that PSG have gone cold14→2%PSG
Barcelona putting in a bid14→62%Barcelona
Talk of a new contract52→97%Stays

Every way it could go. Adds up to 100%

Who’s winning the race?

STAYStays at Man City52%
PSGPSG14%
BARBarcelona14%
RMAReal Madrid13%
OTHAnother club7%

Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).

Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.

Beat the Index

What’s your call?

Calls close 1 Feb. Change your mind any time before then.

You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.

You

Index

STAYStays at Man CityIndex 5252%
=
PSGPSGIndex 1414%
=
BARBarcelonaIndex 1414%
=
RMAReal MadridIndex 1313%
=
OTHAnother clubIndex 77%
=

If it ends like this…

STAYStays at Man Citylevel with the Index

PSGPSGlevel with the Index

BARBarcelonalevel with the Index

RMAReal Madridlevel with the Index

OTHAnother clublevel with the Index

No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.

Every update is kept, and none are ever rewritten

The story so far

IndexCrowd

Who reported it first, who added something new, and who just repeated it

The evidence trail

2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 22 Oct by El Nacional · latest 6d ago

2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.

29 Oct, 00:00·InterestPSGOriginal report
PSG interested. (our summary)
FichajesTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗
22 Oct, 01:00·InterestBAREarliest report we hold
Barcelona interested. (our summary)
El NacionalTier 4 · LowOriginal report ↗

Who’s moving the number, and by how much

Every source, weighed

PSGFichajesT4
Interest · 6d ago
BAREl NacionalT4
Interest · 13d ago
Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.