Where’s Gavi heading?
The Index reckons Gavi stays put.
The question: where will Gavi be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Fichajes · 6d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Fichajes, interest (Liverpool), 6d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 31%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 4h ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
Gavi to Liverpool: 16% on the SWOOP Index (3 Nov, 18:15, UK time).
The link always shows the Index as it stood at that time, even after it moves.
How likely is Gavi to join Liverpool?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 16%.
Why 16%?
The Index reckons Gavi stays (60%). Liverpool are still in the hunt at 16%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 60%. Liverpool remain a live alternative at 16%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- LIV
Liverpool interested.
Fichajes · Tier 4 · Low · 6d ago · Original report ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 4h ago · latest report 6d ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Liverpool have enquired16→35%Liverpool
- A reliable report that Liverpool have gone cold16→2%Liverpool
- PSG putting in a bid16→65%PSG
- Talk of a new contract60→97%Stays
Who’s winning the race?
- OTHAnother club8%
Bar = the Index. Purple tick = what the fans think (0 fans).
Split your call across every outcomeIt’s a race, so you can back more than one club.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at BarcelonaIndex 6060%=
- LIVLiverpoolIndex 1616%=
- PSGPSGIndex 1616%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 88%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 21 Oct by El Nacional · latest 6d ago
2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Liverpool interested. (our summary)
PSG interested. (our summary)
Every source, weighed
- LIVFichajesT4Interest · 6d ago
- PSGEl NacionalT4Interest · 14d ago
- Weight = how far along the report says it is × how reliable the source is × how fresh it is. Five outlets repeating one journalist count once.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 2 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook